We surveyed our Experts on the COVID 19 recovery
- Julie Olejnik-Brown
- Apr 13, 2020
- 9 min read
Updated: Apr 14, 2020
We surveyed our Experts and asked them industry-specific questions about the COVID 19 recovery and how it will affect business in the coming months.
Here is what the Experts are saying -
Hotel and Casino Expert
Right now, most lodging properties are closed. The hotels that are still open are down about 80% in revenue. Most are applying for rescue capital, and many won't survive. The short term is going to be a bloodbath for the industry.
Mid-term, after the first wave of the virus, there will be a limited recovery, fueled by the people who have gotten the virus, and will be immune. They will want to get back to work, travel for business, and take pent-up leisure trips. But, the majority of the population won't travel until they are vaccinated.
Long-term, this will be like a flu, and most people will get an annual vaccine to protect themselves against the then-current strain of the virus. Hotels will promote their cleaning services and precautions to build back trust in the traveling public. Business and leisure travel should return to near-normal levels. Not sure if the cruise industry will ever fully recover, though.
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Premises Liability and Gaming Expert
I expect the gaming industry to struggle for its return to pre-pandemic days for in the short and long term.
What will your industry look like when business resumes after the stay at home order is lifted? Social distancing and how its managed will be a major factor in a property's success or failure.
What changes do you think your industry will make to accommodate the "new normal"? Social distancing, absolutely. Involvement of security and surveillance teams to identify, deter, detect, and respond to Covid-19 incidents/concerns.
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Chiropractor Expert
Chiropractors will need to heavily incorporate telemedicine visits into their care. This can be done before care to screen at-risk individuals (like an elderly person in the times of COVID), and it will help get people to the right providers quicker. However, the reimbursements need to be increased. But the telemedicine offers a lot of flexibility to providers.
What will your industry look like when business resumes after the stay at home order is lifted?
Unfortunately, I fear that 10-20% of offices will be closed. 1:1 service like chiropractic has razor thin margins and can't be scaled. Whereas plaintiff attorneys take on small cases with the hopes to get get some major wins in their careers, chiropractic doesn't have the "major win" category. Its just 1:1, trading time for money. I believe a lot of the smaller, 1-provider shops will close their doors. And this offers the opportunity for larger, multi-provider clinics with multiple locations to pick up soe experienced talent at a lower cost.
I also think the healthcare industry in general will evolve and become more decentralized. Chiropractors may fill the role of providing palliative care and musculoskeletal care to those who would otherwise end up in the Emergency Room or in elective surgery. We can provide a stop-gap to allow the ER to deal with patients only the ER can handle. In the current climate, this means those with respiratory issues.
What changes do you think your industry will make to accommodate the "new normal"?
We will lobby to change reimbursement for telemedicine. We'll change what an "initial visit" looks like, and I believe we will find ways to allow patients to continue are without attending the office. As with any crisis, there are opportunities.... but there are threats as well. And as I said above, I think more chiropractors will join together to lower the overhead, instead of playing "lone wolf".
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Construction and Buildings Expert
What will your industry look like when business resumes after the stay at home order is lifted? CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SLOWER BECAUSE IT WAS THE TOP OF THE MARKET (CLOSE TO BUBBLE TERRITORY).
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Hotel Operations and Tourism Expert
What's your point of view on your industry over the coming months? The hospitality industry is obviously taking a huge hit in terms of lost business from COVID-19. It's my expectation that it will recover, but that the climb back will be slow, as customers will be wary about exposure to risk AND cash-strapped from loss of work over this period. Hospitality relies on disposable income, and that will be in short supply.
What will your industry look like when business resumes after the stay at home order is lifted? Businesses will likely try to return to pre-COVID-19 operating conditions, but I suspect that they will have to show increased care in sanitation and cleanliness in order to convince customers that they are safe to do business with...especially for hotels, cruise lines, airlines, etc.
What changes do you think your industry will make to accommodate the "new normal"? Increased manpower and attention to cleanliness...more hand sanitizing stations...more frequent cleanings of public areas, handrails, restrooms, etc. There will be a definite pressure to learn from this event and prevent future outbreaks in places of business.
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Real Estate Investor Expert
The world just went from traveling at 100 miles an hour to traveling at 10 miles an hour. Everything is slowing down. It will be a long time before life gets back up to speed. Many people like the slower pace and may never get back to full speed.
Both real estate and construction are going into a recession. While people are hopeful it will not last long the reality is that many of the workers that have been laid off will not be rehired. Housing prices are going to drop and there will be more apartment and home rentals on the market. Affordable housing demand will rise. Construction will slow down, unless it's to meet the affordable housing needs.
Many tenants who are unable to pay rent now will never be able to make up the unpaid rent. Landlords and financial institutions will both suffer.
So much money has been lost in this changed economy. There is significant litigation on the horizon as many contracts will not have covered a pandemic. Very few ever predicted this could happen. This means that insurance will become more expensive for both landlords and tenants and there will be more exclusions to policies to protect the insurance company against loss.
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Spine Surgeon Expert
What's your point of view on your industry over the coming months?
The pandemic hit the medical field very hard. On one hand some clinicians are very busy helping patients affected by Covid 19. On the other hand, most non-urgent or elective treatments are being postponed and elective surgeries are not being done. This places significant financial burden on private practices that are trying to stay financially solvent while complying with ever-changing medical and governmental directives. I am hoping that most practices will be able to "weather" the storm.
What will your industry look like when business resumes after the stay at home order is lifted?
Once the restrictions are lifted, there will be a "boom" in demand for all the medical services that had to be postponed, including elective surgery. This will definitely help the private practices financially. There will be a lot of frustrated patients with long waits as the practices will scramble to meet the high demand for the services with potentially limited supply of appointments due to layoffs or other practices having gone out of business.
What changes do you think your industry will make to accommodate the "new normal"?
Most medical practices will learn to have larger financial reserves so that they can handle similar problems in the future without going bankrupt. Hopefully there will be greater attention to personal hygiene and keeping the offices clean. I am hoping the American public, insurance companies, healthcare executives, and government agencies will develop new appreciation about the difficult but vital work that all healthcare professionals do for the American public. I hope this will help decrease the regulatory burdens and pressure of declining reimbursements and increasing costs of doing business. The historically-high stimulus packages released by the government will have to be paid for somehow. This will likely result in faster pace of inflation and higher taxes, which will slow down the growth of small businesses for years or decades.
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Security and Premises Liability Expert
What's your point of view on your industry over the coming months? In the short term, (as long as lock-down protocols prevail) court proceedings will be disrupted due to court closings and jury cancellations. Nevertheless, existing cases can be expected to continue, but at a slower pace, as attorneys and expert witnesses prepare cases while awaiting court reopening
What will your industry look like when business resumes after the stay at home order is lifted? Looking further down the line, I believe the concept of premises liability will undoubtedly expand to address a newly recognized obligation of businesses to adopt new standards of care to protect employees and invitees from infectious diseases. Currently, a range of temporary "rules" have been mandated in various jurisdictions relating to distancing, wearing of facial masks, hand washing, etc.; however, it is still too soon to know which, if any, of these infection-defeating attempts are effective. As the current pandemic runs its course and additional information is collected and evaluated, appropriate measures will emerge and new standards of care for merchants will be developed for the protection of both employees and invitees. The standard of care can be expected to vary from industry to industry--e.g., restaurants/bars and the hospitality industry will have different standards than say, factory workers or the construction industry. Exactly what the standard of care will be remains to be defined and the courts will undoubtedly play a role in this process.
Previous cases involving viruses and bacteria (e.g., salmonella, e-coli) have centered on food poisoning rather than spreading infection (such as the Covid-19). Hence, past court rulings will be largely irrelevant and a new standard of care will emerge with a much lower bar for negligence. Certainly, standards of care will be promulgated by both Federal Agencies and Local Agencies, while governors, mayors and other local officials issue widely varying temporary "rules" of their own--all telling businesses what they must do or must not do to minimize employee and invitee exposure to infection. In the immediate aftermath of the current pandemic, confusion will reign. But the public will expect (demand) merchants to take reasonable measures to provide a safe environment on a continuing basis.
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Plastic Surgeon Expert
My industry is plastic surgery. Plastic surgery is divided between aesthetic surgery (cosmetic, elective, cash pay) and reconstructive surgery. Some surgeons do just one or the other and some do a combination of both. The aesthetic side, being more of a luxury, has taken a severe hit during due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Aesthetic procedures are certainly considered “non-essential“, and all surgical and nonsurgical aesthetic procedures have ceased. Many in private practice have had to furlough and/or lay off their employees, negotiate with vendors/lenders/subscriptions for relief, and apply for SBA and/or Cares Act in attempt to get their businesses through this uncertain time. Many practices may not survive. This includes both medical aesthetics and surgical aesthetics practices. Some regions will be affected by far more than others, both depending on the devastation done on the healthcare side (eg New York) as well as regional economies’ resilience (eg San Francisco Bay Area vs Las Vegas Nevada).
The reconstructive side will recover more quickly as the types of procedures done are more semi-elective or can be urgent. This part is also dependent on hospitals’ and insurance systems’.
What will your industry look like when business resumes after the stay at home order is lifted?
Plastic surgery and “cosmetic medicine”, being a luxury on the aesthetic side, is certainly not recession proof. It will be a while before this part of the industry recovers. It will certainly not be immediate. I think it’s fair to look back at the industry’s recovery after the 2008 recession. It took a long time. In my opinion, this will be worse and have more far-reaching consequences. As above, some regions will fare better than others depending on the resilience of their local economies.
What changes do you think your industry will make to accommodate the "new normal"?
For one thing, virtual consultations will become more main stream in all of medicine.
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Risk Management Insurance Expert
I think there's going to be a lot of fallout and ensuing litigation related to the COVID 19 crisis, particularly in my area of expertise risk management and insurance claims. As the losses mount, business owners will naturally try to blunt their losses with insurance coverage.
It's going to be a wild ride.
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Addiction Medicine Expert
What's your point of view on your industry over the coming months?
FOR NOW ADDICTION TREATMENT PROGRAMS REMAIN OPEN. MORE PEOPLE DIE OF ADDICTIVE DISEASE THAN COVID - SO WE TAKE AS MANY PRECAUTIONS AS WE CAN TO KEEP PEOPLE SAFE, BUT CONTINUE TO PROVIDE TREATMENT, MORE IS BEING DONE VIA TELEHEALTH AND THIS WILL CONTINUE.
What will your industry look like when business resumes after the stay at home order is lifted?
I BELIEVE IT WILL LOOK QUITE SIMILAR.
What changes do you think your industry will make to accommodate the "new normal”? INCREASED USE OF TELEHEALTH, ADDICTIONS AND MENTAL HEALTH CHALLENGES, IF ANYTHING WILL INCREASE WITH THE INCREASED STRESS OF CURRENT TIMES SO NEED FOR INTERVENTIONS WILL INCREASE.
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